In 2006, Hillary Clinton was at the top of the world.
Voters, weary of the long war in Iraq and tired of the current Republican leadership, delivered both houses of Congress to the Democrats. Her bid to retain her Senate seat was an easy success, as the Republican opposition failed to produce a viable candidate and instead could do little more than offer a sacrificial lamb for the slaughter. Her own fund raising prowess in her campaign allowed her to sock away a cool $10 million to jump-start her bid for the 2008 presidential election. On top of that, she had the built-in support of a respected former president and professional fundraiser in her husband, Bill Clinton.
Her path to the White House looked to be clear.
Then things started to happen. The Iraq situation started to look a little more hopeful - the surge that she (and Democrats in general) had been opposed to seemed to be working. Worse still, the newly minted Democratic congress proved to be largely ineffective and incapable of bringing about the changes that Americans had sent them to accomplish. Public perception of congress took a nosedive; polls indicated approval ratings for congress at near historic lows. Then, as the campaign was underway, the Republicans looked set to pick a moderate and well-liked senator for their nominee, against all conventional wisdom.
Those, of course, are the least of Hillary's worries.
Senator Barack Obama, of Illinois, proved to be the biggest nightmare to shatter Clinton's once easy dream of becoming president. With scant experience, the senator seemed to have little going for him except for an extraordinary oratory talent and a penchant for instilling hope in his followers. It proved to be more than enough, as Hillary was thumped soundly in the out-of-the-gate caucus in Iowa. In fact, she found herself relegated to a shocking 3rd place once the results were in.
The initial loss did not prove to be fatal to the campaign. Clinton was able to regain her footing and pull of a surprise victory in New Hampshire. She was also able to follow up with a firm victory in Nevada. Nevertheless, the damage was done.
Had Clinton prevailed in Iowa and went on to scoop up victories in New Hampshire and then Nevada, it may have done enough to build up momentum. It may have shattered the notion of Obama's campaign built upon promise and hope. Instead, Iowa served to expose critical weaknesses in the Clinton machine.
Super Tuesday served to reinforce what had already been proven. The Clinton Machine was designed to tap in to the existing Democratic power network, riding on the back of inevitability to the White House. Sailing on name recognition and political networking earned victories in large, established states like California and New York. Obama, however, was able to capitalize on his popular appeal, courting the smaller states and allowing him to emerge with a slight advantage in pledged delegates and the majority of the states themselves. The end of Super Tuesday saw the once inevitable Clinton with a narrow delegate lead, and even then only thanks to the well-oiled machine that brought in superdelegates.
It was in the subsequent contests that the flaws in Clinton's methods were not only exposed, but began to shake her machine apart. The 11 contests since February 5 have been held in places other than the large, powerful states where Clinton can flex her organizational and influential muscle. Her inability to appeal to the populace in the smaller states may have proven her undoing, however. Not only has she been unable to notch a single victory in the last 11 contests, she has been unable to pull within 15 points of Obama.
While the string of losses has not put her at an insurmountable deficit in terms of delegates, the psychological damage inflicted by a string of 11 dismal defeats may prove to be irreparable.
Rather than attempting to adapt, Clinton has instead retreated further in to the strategy of relying on political favors and connections, as well as name recognition, in an attempt to win the large states. Clinton's survival hinges on good showings in Texas and Ohio, and later Pennsylvania, each with large delegate caches. Her machine has, to date, functioned well in these states and allowed her to hold a lead in opinion polling there.
Those leads are rapidly evaporating in the wake of Obama's successive victories since Super Tuesday. The inevitability of a Clinton presidency seems to be rapidly succumbing to the inexorable momentum of victory after victory. Recent polling in Texas shows Obama to be within a few points of Clinton there, and rising fast. An inability to win the Lone Star State will almost certainly prove fatal to Clinton's hopes of winning the nomination.
Even winning the three remaining large contests will not completely exonerate Clinton's past failures to perform consistently. While neither candidate is likely to attain the requisite 2025 delegates to seal the nomination prior to the convention (unless someone concedes), Clinton faces an uphill battle to even narrow the gap and come out on top. Even if she manages to hold on to leads in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, going in to the convention with a delegate deficit will make it very hard for her to win over the hearts of convention-goers and hand the nomination to her.
Particularly since it has been Obama, not Clinton, who has proven effective at winning over the hearts of the masses.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
McCain vs Obama?
For all practical intents, Sen. John McCain wrapped up the Republican nomination the moment that chief rival Mitt Romney suspended his campaign in the wake of dismal Feb 5 showings. A potential surge by his only serious remaining opponent, Mike Huckabee, was rebuffed when McCain swept the Potomac primaries yesterday and padded his delegate count by over 100. More important was McCain's ability to ward off a potentially embarasing loss in Virginia, where he snagged a majority victory and won by a comfortable margin of nearly 10%.
Huckabee's persistent campaign has been denied even a long-shot opportunity to rally from behind and steal the nomination ahead of the convention - it is now a mathematical impossibility for him to achieve the required number of delegates. Huck's chances of forcing a brokered convention, his only remaining out, are equally small - he must win 55% of the remaining delegates to deny McCain an uncontested victory. The former governor has not performed well against McCain outside of his core supporters in the Bible Belt, and the only remaining states where Huck is likely to encounter such friendly territory are Texas, North Carolina and Mississippi. Even blowout victories in the three would still require Huck to pick up a majority of the candidates throughout the rest of the country, and those three are hardly safe. McCain has secured the endorsement of sitting governor Rick Perry of Texas, and recent polls show McCain ahead in North Carolina. Barring a real miracle, McCain will be the GOP nominee.
What about the Democrats? Senator Barack Obama joined McCain in a sweep of yesterday's primary contests. This has not only padded his record of contests won to 24-13 (24-15 if you count chastised Michigan and Florida), and extended his winning streak to 8 contests, but has now put him ahead in the delegate count. The sudden surge of Obama's campaign and string of victories has urged many pundits to start rining the death knell for Hillary Clinton's campaign, but is she really so down and out?
Perhaps. Obama's delegate lead is hardly massive - somewhere between 50 and 100 according to the sources out of over 2500 awarded. With less than 1100 delegates left to go, and the Dem's proportional distribution of delegates, there is an extremely good chance that neither candidate will win enough to seal their fate prior to the convention. Should the vote counts continue to break as they have, it is quite possible for the delegate spread to remain under 200 come convention time, leaving the leading candidate several hundred short of the 2025 required for victory.
One potential factor to consider are the unpledged superdelgates. Should Clinton fail to defuse Obama's momentum and find herself at a disadvantage of a few hundred delegates, one possible recourse would be to use her considerable political influence and attempt to sway enough of these delegates in to her camp to tip the scales in her favor. Many observers view this as an unlikely scenario, as superdelegates tend to vote in line with the state they represent and do not cross sides.
What is more likely is that neither candidate will have the requisite number for victory come convention time, forcing a lively showdown in the convention. In that case, the leader in delegates will come in with a decided advantage that the second-place candidate will find hard to overcome.
Clinton is now facing a likely delegate deficit by the end of the race and a difficult battle at the convention. While her campaign is hardly doomed, she faces an uphill battle to not only cut Obama's momentum short but build up some of her own. Likely defeats in contests next Tuesday will extend her losing streak to 10 and further dampen her prospects. Instead, Clinton has pinned her hopes on large, friendly states like Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania. Convincing victories there (especially Texas and Ohio on March 4) may be enough to revitalize her campaign, but this is a dangerous game she is playing. 2008 has already seen the undoing of one former frontrunner from New York who pinned all hope on large prizes once viewed as friendly.
Huckabee's persistent campaign has been denied even a long-shot opportunity to rally from behind and steal the nomination ahead of the convention - it is now a mathematical impossibility for him to achieve the required number of delegates. Huck's chances of forcing a brokered convention, his only remaining out, are equally small - he must win 55% of the remaining delegates to deny McCain an uncontested victory. The former governor has not performed well against McCain outside of his core supporters in the Bible Belt, and the only remaining states where Huck is likely to encounter such friendly territory are Texas, North Carolina and Mississippi. Even blowout victories in the three would still require Huck to pick up a majority of the candidates throughout the rest of the country, and those three are hardly safe. McCain has secured the endorsement of sitting governor Rick Perry of Texas, and recent polls show McCain ahead in North Carolina. Barring a real miracle, McCain will be the GOP nominee.
What about the Democrats? Senator Barack Obama joined McCain in a sweep of yesterday's primary contests. This has not only padded his record of contests won to 24-13 (24-15 if you count chastised Michigan and Florida), and extended his winning streak to 8 contests, but has now put him ahead in the delegate count. The sudden surge of Obama's campaign and string of victories has urged many pundits to start rining the death knell for Hillary Clinton's campaign, but is she really so down and out?
Perhaps. Obama's delegate lead is hardly massive - somewhere between 50 and 100 according to the sources out of over 2500 awarded. With less than 1100 delegates left to go, and the Dem's proportional distribution of delegates, there is an extremely good chance that neither candidate will win enough to seal their fate prior to the convention. Should the vote counts continue to break as they have, it is quite possible for the delegate spread to remain under 200 come convention time, leaving the leading candidate several hundred short of the 2025 required for victory.
One potential factor to consider are the unpledged superdelgates. Should Clinton fail to defuse Obama's momentum and find herself at a disadvantage of a few hundred delegates, one possible recourse would be to use her considerable political influence and attempt to sway enough of these delegates in to her camp to tip the scales in her favor. Many observers view this as an unlikely scenario, as superdelegates tend to vote in line with the state they represent and do not cross sides.
What is more likely is that neither candidate will have the requisite number for victory come convention time, forcing a lively showdown in the convention. In that case, the leader in delegates will come in with a decided advantage that the second-place candidate will find hard to overcome.
Clinton is now facing a likely delegate deficit by the end of the race and a difficult battle at the convention. While her campaign is hardly doomed, she faces an uphill battle to not only cut Obama's momentum short but build up some of her own. Likely defeats in contests next Tuesday will extend her losing streak to 10 and further dampen her prospects. Instead, Clinton has pinned her hopes on large, friendly states like Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania. Convincing victories there (especially Texas and Ohio on March 4) may be enough to revitalize her campaign, but this is a dangerous game she is playing. 2008 has already seen the undoing of one former frontrunner from New York who pinned all hope on large prizes once viewed as friendly.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
A few answers, a few more questions
Declarations that February 5 would amount to a national primary now appear to be misguided at best. Now that the dust has largely settled from the Super Tuesday primaries, few questions seem to be answered and more seem to have emerged.
On the Democratic side, the primaries failed to produce a resounding victory for either challenger - indeed, it may have failed to provide any victory at all.
Hillary Clinton succeeded in keeping leads in populous states such as California and New York, as well as fend off high-profile endoresements coming from the Kennedy dynasty by taking Massachusetts. However, her victories here did little to reinvigorate her campaign. A combined popular vote showed her splitting the votes nearly 50/50 with challenger Barack Obama, taking fewer states and perhaps even seeing her lead in the delegate race shrink by a handful.
Obama, on the other hand, can take little solace in his claim of taking more states and more delegates. His inability to convert a pre-election surge in California to a victory is a particularly stinging rebuke, and exit polls show that he has still yet to win over the hearts of women and Latino voters, powerful voting blocs in the Democratic party. Obama succeeded in narrowing the race but saw his surging popularity hit a fairly large speed bump on Tuesday that he must overcome.
Delegate counts as of this writing had Clinton narrowly ahead of Obama, 1012-933. With neither candidate having earned over 50% of the required 2025 for the nomination and less than half the states remaining to vote, there is real concern among Democrats that the protracted race may run all the way to Denver and the national convention.
Republican contests were a little more telling, yet failed to produce an assured victor for the nomination.
John McCain had much to smile about Wednesday morning, but weaker than expected showings in the South have left him short of claiming an all-out victory. Anticipated victories in the Northeast have inflated his delegate count, and a resounding victory in California has allowed his momentum to continue. Current results show him with less than 500 delegates left to snatch the nomination, and with 988 delegates left in the remaining states (as well as a handful yet to be calculated from yeterday's races), McCain need only capture half the remaining delegates for a win, a very likely feat as his current delegate count stands at 61% of the total awarded to date.
Mitt Romney, on the other hand, had the biggest headache to awaken to. Wins in Massachusetts and Utah were all but predetermined, and organizational payoffs in caucuses in Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, Montana and North Dakota proved light in delegate counts and even lighter in momentum. Romney has been unable to capture a primary victory where he did not have "favorite son" status. He proved incapable of leveraging his status as "conservative" into anything better than a 3rd place showing in the South. More punishing was his loss in California - a state where he sunk over $2 million in advertizing and where pundits and pollsters were prognosticating a win for him - where McCain handed him a firm defeat in the popular count and a blistering 146-3 loss in delegate count as of this writing. Romney has insisted he will fight on but his prospects look bleak : Virginia offers 63 delegates in an upcoming winner-take-all primary but the vast majority of upcoming delegates are handed out more proportionately. With a deficit of 947 delegates for the nomination, Romney would have to somehow win 90% of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination.
Mike Huckabee will ensure this does not happen. Long derided as a spoiler to Romney's conservative base, Huckabee not only prevented Romney from a strong showing in the South - he buried the former governor in 3rd place while snatching a string of surprise victories yesterday. Huckabee's chances at the nomination are extremely slim, as he would need to win virtually all of the remaining delegates just to have a shot. His lack of support outside of the South means that this is virtually impossible and that Huckabee has no chance to win. Some conservative pundits have insisted this is enough reason for the Southerner to bow out and leave open the possibility of a Romney win, but Huckabee has turned the tables and shown - perhaps rightly so - that it is Romney who should concede defeat and bow out.
What is rather more likely is that Huckabee stays in the race - as does Romney. Romney must make the difficult decision whether to sink more of his fortune into an increasingly unlikely candidacy (some figures show he may have already exhausted $50 million of his own fortune on what has largely turned out to be a loss). Observers have noted the warm relationship between McCain and Huckabee, including the possibility that Huck's persistence is in large part an effort to cull favor with the eventual winner (McCain) for a high spot in the administration or even a veep spot on the ticket. Prospects are much dimmer for Romney. If he does not bow out within the next week, he will be forced to pour more money into a last-ditch effort to stall his downward spiral in Virginia. Given McCain's strength in the neighboring Northeast and Huckabee's power in the neighboring South, a Romney win here looks unlikely. Expect Mitt to be out of the equation by this time next week.
Perhaps the biggest losers in yesterday's Republican primaries, however, are the Conservative Pundits. Yesterday was a demonstration of their dismal failure to energize votes for Romney and away from McCain. Only time will tell if their grip on the attentions - and presumably the minds - of the conservative voters has slipped for good, but it is pretty clear that, in spite of thier blistering rhetoric to the contrary, talking heads like Limbaugh, Hannity and Coulter do not wield the power they once imagined they had.
On the Democratic side, the primaries failed to produce a resounding victory for either challenger - indeed, it may have failed to provide any victory at all.
Hillary Clinton succeeded in keeping leads in populous states such as California and New York, as well as fend off high-profile endoresements coming from the Kennedy dynasty by taking Massachusetts. However, her victories here did little to reinvigorate her campaign. A combined popular vote showed her splitting the votes nearly 50/50 with challenger Barack Obama, taking fewer states and perhaps even seeing her lead in the delegate race shrink by a handful.
Obama, on the other hand, can take little solace in his claim of taking more states and more delegates. His inability to convert a pre-election surge in California to a victory is a particularly stinging rebuke, and exit polls show that he has still yet to win over the hearts of women and Latino voters, powerful voting blocs in the Democratic party. Obama succeeded in narrowing the race but saw his surging popularity hit a fairly large speed bump on Tuesday that he must overcome.
Delegate counts as of this writing had Clinton narrowly ahead of Obama, 1012-933. With neither candidate having earned over 50% of the required 2025 for the nomination and less than half the states remaining to vote, there is real concern among Democrats that the protracted race may run all the way to Denver and the national convention.
Republican contests were a little more telling, yet failed to produce an assured victor for the nomination.
John McCain had much to smile about Wednesday morning, but weaker than expected showings in the South have left him short of claiming an all-out victory. Anticipated victories in the Northeast have inflated his delegate count, and a resounding victory in California has allowed his momentum to continue. Current results show him with less than 500 delegates left to snatch the nomination, and with 988 delegates left in the remaining states (as well as a handful yet to be calculated from yeterday's races), McCain need only capture half the remaining delegates for a win, a very likely feat as his current delegate count stands at 61% of the total awarded to date.
Mitt Romney, on the other hand, had the biggest headache to awaken to. Wins in Massachusetts and Utah were all but predetermined, and organizational payoffs in caucuses in Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, Montana and North Dakota proved light in delegate counts and even lighter in momentum. Romney has been unable to capture a primary victory where he did not have "favorite son" status. He proved incapable of leveraging his status as "conservative" into anything better than a 3rd place showing in the South. More punishing was his loss in California - a state where he sunk over $2 million in advertizing and where pundits and pollsters were prognosticating a win for him - where McCain handed him a firm defeat in the popular count and a blistering 146-3 loss in delegate count as of this writing. Romney has insisted he will fight on but his prospects look bleak : Virginia offers 63 delegates in an upcoming winner-take-all primary but the vast majority of upcoming delegates are handed out more proportionately. With a deficit of 947 delegates for the nomination, Romney would have to somehow win 90% of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination.
Mike Huckabee will ensure this does not happen. Long derided as a spoiler to Romney's conservative base, Huckabee not only prevented Romney from a strong showing in the South - he buried the former governor in 3rd place while snatching a string of surprise victories yesterday. Huckabee's chances at the nomination are extremely slim, as he would need to win virtually all of the remaining delegates just to have a shot. His lack of support outside of the South means that this is virtually impossible and that Huckabee has no chance to win. Some conservative pundits have insisted this is enough reason for the Southerner to bow out and leave open the possibility of a Romney win, but Huckabee has turned the tables and shown - perhaps rightly so - that it is Romney who should concede defeat and bow out.
What is rather more likely is that Huckabee stays in the race - as does Romney. Romney must make the difficult decision whether to sink more of his fortune into an increasingly unlikely candidacy (some figures show he may have already exhausted $50 million of his own fortune on what has largely turned out to be a loss). Observers have noted the warm relationship between McCain and Huckabee, including the possibility that Huck's persistence is in large part an effort to cull favor with the eventual winner (McCain) for a high spot in the administration or even a veep spot on the ticket. Prospects are much dimmer for Romney. If he does not bow out within the next week, he will be forced to pour more money into a last-ditch effort to stall his downward spiral in Virginia. Given McCain's strength in the neighboring Northeast and Huckabee's power in the neighboring South, a Romney win here looks unlikely. Expect Mitt to be out of the equation by this time next week.
Perhaps the biggest losers in yesterday's Republican primaries, however, are the Conservative Pundits. Yesterday was a demonstration of their dismal failure to energize votes for Romney and away from McCain. Only time will tell if their grip on the attentions - and presumably the minds - of the conservative voters has slipped for good, but it is pretty clear that, in spite of thier blistering rhetoric to the contrary, talking heads like Limbaugh, Hannity and Coulter do not wield the power they once imagined they had.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Romney's last stand?
Mitt Romney should, by all conventional wisdom, be cruising on his way toward the GOP nomination. He has the backing of a large contingent of the Republican establishment. He is the chosen darling of popular conservative pundits, talk-radio hosts and bloggers. He has a look that has been described as "presidential" and is an accomplished debater and public speaker. He also has an immense personal wealth.
Why is it, then, that the former Massachusetts governor finds himself fighting an uphill battle to remain in the race?
Mr. Romney has, for all of his credentials, failed to galvanize any substantial support to his cause. The first several races have, in fact, shown that Mr. Romney has two critical weaknesses that have dimmed his hopes at the nomination and shown that he is, perhaps, not so strong a candidate as the establishment would like to think. First, he has failed to leverage his fortune into success at the voting booth. Spending more on advertising than all his opponents combined, particularly with hefty investments in states like Florida, one would think that Mr. Romney would see some results, but has thus far not been able to translate dollars spent into votes earned. Second, and perhaps more telling, is the fact that he has been unable to win a single truly competetive contest where he did not hold a home-field advantage. His only wins thus far have been in Michigan, where he held a strong native-son advantage, and in Maine, Nevada and Wyoming, all virtually uncontested by the remainder of the Republican field.
Nevertheless, Mitt Romney and his rabid support on the far right insist that he can and will go on to win the Republican nominaion. In order for Mr. Romney to remain relevant in the contest - let alone go on to win it all - there are a few key accomplishments that he must attain today.
First and foremost is California. Mr. Romney has already sunk seven figures into advertisments in California, mirroring his Florida strategy of outspending his rivals by vast amounts. More than just that, the Romney camp has all but declared California their path to the nomination, with optimistic statements to the effect that "A California win will pave our way to victory in the end." A win here would indeed prove that Mr. Romney has the mettle to win in a highly contested state - as well as vindicating the millions he has spent - but would do little to ensure victory. Even a crushing win here and a sweep of all the state's 173 delegates would merely offset the 183 delegates John McCain is virtually assured in winner-take-all states New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. A loss here would increase the doubts as to whether Mr. Romney can put his money to use and win where it matters.
Mr. Romney must also pull off a victory in either Georgia, Tennessee or Missouri. Recent polls have shown the three states to be competitive with room for a Romney victory. A win in the South would prove that Mr. Romney can hold his own against southerner Mike Huckabee and go far to show he can continue to compete where he does not hold home-field advantages. A win in bellwether Missouri would be particularly sweet, as the state awards its 58 delegates on a winner-take-all basis. A failure to convert heavy campaigning in the South into a victory will stifle any momentum Mr. Romney might gain from a California win.
Utah will prove to be an easy 36 delegates today, and strong campaigning - as well as regional influence - may net Romney Montana's 25 delegates, but the rest of his strongholds are in states that allot delegates in a more proportional manner. Romney should pick up wins in Colorado and Massachusetts and the majority of their combined 89 candidates. Organizational strength will also translate into strong showings - and perhaps wins - in Alaska, Minnesota, North Dakota and West Virginia, states that hold caucuses rather than primaries. Unfortunately for the Romney camp, these states offer fairly small rewards in terms of delegates and momentum. McCain is practically assured victory in Arizona as well as the Northeast contests, offering up 254 winner-take-all delegates, nearly 25% of the total required for victory. Without wins in California and the South, Mr. Romney will find himself at a severe disadvantage in the race for delegates and running a distant second in the race for the nomination.
Can Mitt Romney survive his "last stand" and continue to fight? The answer may not be known until late tonight - perhaps even tomorrow if the polling is close - when California returns become available. When the dust settles from Super Tuesday, John McCain will continue to be ahead in the delegate race and retain the title of frontrunner. The question that remains is whether Mr. Romney has a realistic chance of staying in the race.
Why is it, then, that the former Massachusetts governor finds himself fighting an uphill battle to remain in the race?
Mr. Romney has, for all of his credentials, failed to galvanize any substantial support to his cause. The first several races have, in fact, shown that Mr. Romney has two critical weaknesses that have dimmed his hopes at the nomination and shown that he is, perhaps, not so strong a candidate as the establishment would like to think. First, he has failed to leverage his fortune into success at the voting booth. Spending more on advertising than all his opponents combined, particularly with hefty investments in states like Florida, one would think that Mr. Romney would see some results, but has thus far not been able to translate dollars spent into votes earned. Second, and perhaps more telling, is the fact that he has been unable to win a single truly competetive contest where he did not hold a home-field advantage. His only wins thus far have been in Michigan, where he held a strong native-son advantage, and in Maine, Nevada and Wyoming, all virtually uncontested by the remainder of the Republican field.
Nevertheless, Mitt Romney and his rabid support on the far right insist that he can and will go on to win the Republican nominaion. In order for Mr. Romney to remain relevant in the contest - let alone go on to win it all - there are a few key accomplishments that he must attain today.
First and foremost is California. Mr. Romney has already sunk seven figures into advertisments in California, mirroring his Florida strategy of outspending his rivals by vast amounts. More than just that, the Romney camp has all but declared California their path to the nomination, with optimistic statements to the effect that "A California win will pave our way to victory in the end." A win here would indeed prove that Mr. Romney has the mettle to win in a highly contested state - as well as vindicating the millions he has spent - but would do little to ensure victory. Even a crushing win here and a sweep of all the state's 173 delegates would merely offset the 183 delegates John McCain is virtually assured in winner-take-all states New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. A loss here would increase the doubts as to whether Mr. Romney can put his money to use and win where it matters.
Mr. Romney must also pull off a victory in either Georgia, Tennessee or Missouri. Recent polls have shown the three states to be competitive with room for a Romney victory. A win in the South would prove that Mr. Romney can hold his own against southerner Mike Huckabee and go far to show he can continue to compete where he does not hold home-field advantages. A win in bellwether Missouri would be particularly sweet, as the state awards its 58 delegates on a winner-take-all basis. A failure to convert heavy campaigning in the South into a victory will stifle any momentum Mr. Romney might gain from a California win.
Utah will prove to be an easy 36 delegates today, and strong campaigning - as well as regional influence - may net Romney Montana's 25 delegates, but the rest of his strongholds are in states that allot delegates in a more proportional manner. Romney should pick up wins in Colorado and Massachusetts and the majority of their combined 89 candidates. Organizational strength will also translate into strong showings - and perhaps wins - in Alaska, Minnesota, North Dakota and West Virginia, states that hold caucuses rather than primaries. Unfortunately for the Romney camp, these states offer fairly small rewards in terms of delegates and momentum. McCain is practically assured victory in Arizona as well as the Northeast contests, offering up 254 winner-take-all delegates, nearly 25% of the total required for victory. Without wins in California and the South, Mr. Romney will find himself at a severe disadvantage in the race for delegates and running a distant second in the race for the nomination.
Can Mitt Romney survive his "last stand" and continue to fight? The answer may not be known until late tonight - perhaps even tomorrow if the polling is close - when California returns become available. When the dust settles from Super Tuesday, John McCain will continue to be ahead in the delegate race and retain the title of frontrunner. The question that remains is whether Mr. Romney has a realistic chance of staying in the race.
Friday, January 25, 2008
I approve this message
As it seems to be en vogue for respectable publications and online media sources to include an editorial article endorsing their favorite candidate - or sometimes one from each party for the primary elections - I am here to do the same. Far be it from me to presume that my meager little space even vaguely resembles anything respectable, but at the very least I do not have to worry about an editorial board coming together and agreeing on a nominee to endorse.
Among the Democrats, my choice is fairly simple: Barack Obama. When word started to circulate about a possible Obama candidacy, I was intrigued. The notion of fresh blood entering the race is something that always catches my attention. Much of the fuel that has been running his campaign thus far has been the promise of a change from the status quo. Furthermore, Obama seems to have a genuine interest in contributing to the well-being of America. No, I am not about to fall for the notion that personal gain is not part of the equation - he is a politician, after all. However, of the Democratic candidates, he seems to be the most honest and genuine.
On social issues, I feel that Obama gets things largely right. On more economic issues I find I disagree with him in many places, but compared to the rest of the field Obama strikes me as refreshingly moderate. Perhaps the biggest concern I have with him as a candidate is his lack of credentials - it is difficult to accurately gauge a candidate upon promise alone. However, I feel that compared to his competition, the promise that he holds outweighs the risk in his lack of experience.
As for the other candidates, John Edwards strikes me as hypocritical and a consummate panderer. He tries to play the part of a down to earth populist, decrying the evils of the big corporations and pretend to be the champion of the middle class. His luxurious lifestyle calls in to question just how in tune he is with the middle class, however, and it feels dishonest. Hillary Clinton, too, seems to be good at pandering and putting on a show. Well-timed tears have earned her votes but to me felt hollow. Her "carpetbagger" run for her Senate seat felt more like a desire to groom herself for a presidential bid, and her participation in this race seems to reinforce the idea. She seems more interested in being President for her own personal agenda rather than any real desire to serve.
Among Republicans I would endorse John McCain. The biggest thing he has going for him in my book is the disdain of the GOP establishment - the more I hear hardcore conservatives try to denigrate him with invectives such as RINO, the more I like the man. He seems less interested in pandering to the party and more in speaking his mind. His opposition to unfunded tax cuts and support for some method of legalizing illegal immigrants, while inevitably infuriating fellow Republicans, lines up neatly with many of my own views.
I am somewhat leery of his hawkish stance on the war, and that he supported going there in the first place gives me pause. I must admit that, since we are already there, I feel he is better equipped to handle the situation than his challengers. I am also not hot on his typically conservative stances regarding social issues, but he is no worse than the rest of the right - but his opposition to conservative efforts such as a constitutional ban of gay marriage and his desire to abdicate many social issues to the state level is a refreshing break from the GOP standard.
As for the others? Mitt Romney has a lot of credentials as a successful businessman, which means a lot in an ailing economy, but I do not feel he has all the answers. His overly conservative stance on social issues as well as his chameleonic ability to morph into whatever form caters most to any given bloc of voters is disturbing. Rudy Giuliani is a bit on the moderate side and has that going for him in my book, but he seems to have some honesty issues going on. Furthermore, I'd lump him in with Hillary Clinton as the sort who is more interested in putting a bigger notch on the resume rather than wanting to make changes for the good. And as for Mike Huckabee? His statement that the Constitution needs to be brought more in line with God's teachings is far and away enough to put him at the very bottom of my list of preferred candidates.
In the end, my interest in the primary campaign is a bit futile. As a registered independent I am not allowed to vote in either primary in my state's upcoming closed elections. I have to admit to feeling somewhat disenfranchised, but more than that, disappointed that there are not better third-party options to consider. I paraphrase the late Dr. Martin Luther King, one of our country's greatest visionaries : I have a dream that one day voters of this nation will judge our candidates not by the color of their party but by the content of their character.
Among the Democrats, my choice is fairly simple: Barack Obama. When word started to circulate about a possible Obama candidacy, I was intrigued. The notion of fresh blood entering the race is something that always catches my attention. Much of the fuel that has been running his campaign thus far has been the promise of a change from the status quo. Furthermore, Obama seems to have a genuine interest in contributing to the well-being of America. No, I am not about to fall for the notion that personal gain is not part of the equation - he is a politician, after all. However, of the Democratic candidates, he seems to be the most honest and genuine.
On social issues, I feel that Obama gets things largely right. On more economic issues I find I disagree with him in many places, but compared to the rest of the field Obama strikes me as refreshingly moderate. Perhaps the biggest concern I have with him as a candidate is his lack of credentials - it is difficult to accurately gauge a candidate upon promise alone. However, I feel that compared to his competition, the promise that he holds outweighs the risk in his lack of experience.
As for the other candidates, John Edwards strikes me as hypocritical and a consummate panderer. He tries to play the part of a down to earth populist, decrying the evils of the big corporations and pretend to be the champion of the middle class. His luxurious lifestyle calls in to question just how in tune he is with the middle class, however, and it feels dishonest. Hillary Clinton, too, seems to be good at pandering and putting on a show. Well-timed tears have earned her votes but to me felt hollow. Her "carpetbagger" run for her Senate seat felt more like a desire to groom herself for a presidential bid, and her participation in this race seems to reinforce the idea. She seems more interested in being President for her own personal agenda rather than any real desire to serve.
Among Republicans I would endorse John McCain. The biggest thing he has going for him in my book is the disdain of the GOP establishment - the more I hear hardcore conservatives try to denigrate him with invectives such as RINO, the more I like the man. He seems less interested in pandering to the party and more in speaking his mind. His opposition to unfunded tax cuts and support for some method of legalizing illegal immigrants, while inevitably infuriating fellow Republicans, lines up neatly with many of my own views.
I am somewhat leery of his hawkish stance on the war, and that he supported going there in the first place gives me pause. I must admit that, since we are already there, I feel he is better equipped to handle the situation than his challengers. I am also not hot on his typically conservative stances regarding social issues, but he is no worse than the rest of the right - but his opposition to conservative efforts such as a constitutional ban of gay marriage and his desire to abdicate many social issues to the state level is a refreshing break from the GOP standard.
As for the others? Mitt Romney has a lot of credentials as a successful businessman, which means a lot in an ailing economy, but I do not feel he has all the answers. His overly conservative stance on social issues as well as his chameleonic ability to morph into whatever form caters most to any given bloc of voters is disturbing. Rudy Giuliani is a bit on the moderate side and has that going for him in my book, but he seems to have some honesty issues going on. Furthermore, I'd lump him in with Hillary Clinton as the sort who is more interested in putting a bigger notch on the resume rather than wanting to make changes for the good. And as for Mike Huckabee? His statement that the Constitution needs to be brought more in line with God's teachings is far and away enough to put him at the very bottom of my list of preferred candidates.
In the end, my interest in the primary campaign is a bit futile. As a registered independent I am not allowed to vote in either primary in my state's upcoming closed elections. I have to admit to feeling somewhat disenfranchised, but more than that, disappointed that there are not better third-party options to consider. I paraphrase the late Dr. Martin Luther King, one of our country's greatest visionaries : I have a dream that one day voters of this nation will judge our candidates not by the color of their party but by the content of their character.
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