Romney's last stand?

Mitt Romney should, by all conventional wisdom, be cruising on his way toward the GOP nomination. He has the backing of a large contingent of the Republican establishment. He is the chosen darling of popular conservative pundits, talk-radio hosts and bloggers. He has a look that has been described as "presidential" and is an accomplished debater and public speaker. He also has an immense personal wealth.

Why is it, then, that the former Massachusetts governor finds himself fighting an uphill battle to remain in the race?

Mr. Romney has, for all of his credentials, failed to galvanize any substantial support to his cause. The first several races have, in fact, shown that Mr. Romney has two critical weaknesses that have dimmed his hopes at the nomination and shown that he is, perhaps, not so strong a candidate as the establishment would like to think. First, he has failed to leverage his fortune into success at the voting booth. Spending more on advertising than all his opponents combined, particularly with hefty investments in states like Florida, one would think that Mr. Romney would see some results, but has thus far not been able to translate dollars spent into votes earned. Second, and perhaps more telling, is the fact that he has been unable to win a single truly competetive contest where he did not hold a home-field advantage. His only wins thus far have been in Michigan, where he held a strong native-son advantage, and in Maine, Nevada and Wyoming, all virtually uncontested by the remainder of the Republican field.

Nevertheless, Mitt Romney and his rabid support on the far right insist that he can and will go on to win the Republican nominaion. In order for Mr. Romney to remain relevant in the contest - let alone go on to win it all - there are a few key accomplishments that he must attain today.

First and foremost is California. Mr. Romney has already sunk seven figures into advertisments in California, mirroring his Florida strategy of outspending his rivals by vast amounts. More than just that, the Romney camp has all but declared California their path to the nomination, with optimistic statements to the effect that "A California win will pave our way to victory in the end." A win here would indeed prove that Mr. Romney has the mettle to win in a highly contested state - as well as vindicating the millions he has spent - but would do little to ensure victory. Even a crushing win here and a sweep of all the state's 173 delegates would merely offset the 183 delegates John McCain is virtually assured in winner-take-all states New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. A loss here would increase the doubts as to whether Mr. Romney can put his money to use and win where it matters.

Mr. Romney must also pull off a victory in either Georgia, Tennessee or Missouri. Recent polls have shown the three states to be competitive with room for a Romney victory. A win in the South would prove that Mr. Romney can hold his own against southerner Mike Huckabee and go far to show he can continue to compete where he does not hold home-field advantages. A win in bellwether Missouri would be particularly sweet, as the state awards its 58 delegates on a winner-take-all basis. A failure to convert heavy campaigning in the South into a victory will stifle any momentum Mr. Romney might gain from a California win.

Utah will prove to be an easy 36 delegates today, and strong campaigning - as well as regional influence - may net Romney Montana's 25 delegates, but the rest of his strongholds are in states that allot delegates in a more proportional manner. Romney should pick up wins in Colorado and Massachusetts and the majority of their combined 89 candidates. Organizational strength will also translate into strong showings - and perhaps wins - in Alaska, Minnesota, North Dakota and West Virginia, states that hold caucuses rather than primaries. Unfortunately for the Romney camp, these states offer fairly small rewards in terms of delegates and momentum. McCain is practically assured victory in Arizona as well as the Northeast contests, offering up 254 winner-take-all delegates, nearly 25% of the total required for victory. Without wins in California and the South, Mr. Romney will find himself at a severe disadvantage in the race for delegates and running a distant second in the race for the nomination.

Can Mitt Romney survive his "last stand" and continue to fight? The answer may not be known until late tonight - perhaps even tomorrow if the polling is close - when California returns become available. When the dust settles from Super Tuesday, John McCain will continue to be ahead in the delegate race and retain the title of frontrunner. The question that remains is whether Mr. Romney has a realistic chance of staying in the race.