McCain vs Obama?

For all practical intents, Sen. John McCain wrapped up the Republican nomination the moment that chief rival Mitt Romney suspended his campaign in the wake of dismal Feb 5 showings. A potential surge by his only serious remaining opponent, Mike Huckabee, was rebuffed when McCain swept the Potomac primaries yesterday and padded his delegate count by over 100. More important was McCain's ability to ward off a potentially embarasing loss in Virginia, where he snagged a majority victory and won by a comfortable margin of nearly 10%.

Huckabee's persistent campaign has been denied even a long-shot opportunity to rally from behind and steal the nomination ahead of the convention - it is now a mathematical impossibility for him to achieve the required number of delegates. Huck's chances of forcing a brokered convention, his only remaining out, are equally small - he must win 55% of the remaining delegates to deny McCain an uncontested victory. The former governor has not performed well against McCain outside of his core supporters in the Bible Belt, and the only remaining states where Huck is likely to encounter such friendly territory are Texas, North Carolina and Mississippi. Even blowout victories in the three would still require Huck to pick up a majority of the candidates throughout the rest of the country, and those three are hardly safe. McCain has secured the endorsement of sitting governor Rick Perry of Texas, and recent polls show McCain ahead in North Carolina. Barring a real miracle, McCain will be the GOP nominee.

What about the Democrats? Senator Barack Obama joined McCain in a sweep of yesterday's primary contests. This has not only padded his record of contests won to 24-13 (24-15 if you count chastised Michigan and Florida), and extended his winning streak to 8 contests, but has now put him ahead in the delegate count. The sudden surge of Obama's campaign and string of victories has urged many pundits to start rining the death knell for Hillary Clinton's campaign, but is she really so down and out?

Perhaps. Obama's delegate lead is hardly massive - somewhere between 50 and 100 according to the sources out of over 2500 awarded. With less than 1100 delegates left to go, and the Dem's proportional distribution of delegates, there is an extremely good chance that neither candidate will win enough to seal their fate prior to the convention. Should the vote counts continue to break as they have, it is quite possible for the delegate spread to remain under 200 come convention time, leaving the leading candidate several hundred short of the 2025 required for victory.

One potential factor to consider are the unpledged superdelgates. Should Clinton fail to defuse Obama's momentum and find herself at a disadvantage of a few hundred delegates, one possible recourse would be to use her considerable political influence and attempt to sway enough of these delegates in to her camp to tip the scales in her favor. Many observers view this as an unlikely scenario, as superdelegates tend to vote in line with the state they represent and do not cross sides.

What is more likely is that neither candidate will have the requisite number for victory come convention time, forcing a lively showdown in the convention. In that case, the leader in delegates will come in with a decided advantage that the second-place candidate will find hard to overcome.

Clinton is now facing a likely delegate deficit by the end of the race and a difficult battle at the convention. While her campaign is hardly doomed, she faces an uphill battle to not only cut Obama's momentum short but build up some of her own. Likely defeats in contests next Tuesday will extend her losing streak to 10 and further dampen her prospects. Instead, Clinton has pinned her hopes on large, friendly states like Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania. Convincing victories there (especially Texas and Ohio on March 4) may be enough to revitalize her campaign, but this is a dangerous game she is playing. 2008 has already seen the undoing of one former frontrunner from New York who pinned all hope on large prizes once viewed as friendly.